kottke.org posts about iran
The Wall Street Journal's Photo Journal blog, the launch of which was inspired by The Big Picture, has posted exactly *zero* photos of what's going on in Iran right now in their "Pictures of the Day" feature. That strikes me as odd. In contrast, The Big Picture has posted three big entries dedicated to the elections.
I was kinda waiting for FiveThirtyEight to weigh in on this: using Benford's Law to check for fraud in the Iranian election results (here as well).
Benford's law is sometimes useful in these cases, because human beings intuitively tend to distribute the first digits about evenly when they're making up "random" strings of numbers, when in fact many real-world distributions will be skewed toward the smaller digits.
Both 538 pieces are skeptical that Benford's Law is applicable in this case. (thx, nick)
Update: Voting fraud expert Walter Mebane has produced a paper on the Iranian election that uses Benford's Law to check the results. He's updated the paper several times since it was first published and now writes that "the results give moderately strong support for a diagnosis that the 2009 election was affected by significant fraud". (thx,scott)
Update: Done just after the election, this analysis shows that the returns released by Iran's Interior Ministry during the course of the day of the election shows an unnaturally high steadiness of voting percentages. (thx, cliff)
Update: Regarding the previous link, Nate Silver doesn't think much of that analysis. (thx, cliff)
A Seymour Hersh piece from tomorrow's New Yorker about the Bush Administration's plan for Iran. Amazingly enough, Bush is using the same tactics he did to wage war in Iraq. This time, instead of Iraq = Al-Qaeda, it's Iran = Iraq.
In a series of public statements in recent months, President Bush and members of his Administration have redefined the war in Iraq, to an increasing degree, as a strategic battle between the United States and Iran. "Shia extremists, backed by Iran, are training Iraqis to carry out attacks on our forces and the Iraqi people," Bush told the national convention of the American Legion in August. "The attacks on our bases and our troops by Iranian-supplied munitions have increased... The Iranian regime must halt these actions. And, until it does, I will take actions necessary to protect our troops." He then concluded, to applause, "I have authorized our military commanders in Iraq to confront Tehran's murderous activities."
Will we fall for it again?
An article in this week's New Yorker by Seymour Hersh suggests that the attack of Hezbollah in Lebanon by Israel was premeditated and approved by the US government, who viewed it as a chance to weaken both Hezbollah and Iran and as a template for similar attacks for an upcoming war with Iran.
Hossein Derakhshan is on his way to Israel, which is unusual for a native Iranian. "As a citizen journalist, I'm going to show my 20,000 daily Iranian readers what Israel really looks like and how people live there."
Hossein Derakhshan, founding father of the influential Iranian blogging movement, is visiting Iran and needs your financial support. He's going to cover the trip as a citizen journalist but warns that he may be detained, questioned, thrown in jail, be forced to make false statements, etc.